What will be after COVID-19?

You are currently stuck at home and have more than enough time to think. The daily flow of depressing, worrying news doesn’t let go of you, although the gain in knowledge remains extremely small. Thoughts about it run in circles. Time to bring some order into your own thinking.

> Go directly to the Corona-Trendlist

I wrote this post on 29.03.2020, 7 days after the first lock-down started in Germany.

As an industrial designer or developer in general, I design with certain assumptions in my head. Assumptions that have developed over decades of professional activity and that are reliably implemented in new products.

But now it is also clear that our world will not be the same after the COVID-19 crisis has been overcome. What will change, what will remain? The experts cannot give you any certainty. So we are forced to move into the field of speculation.

If I now plan products – and the products planned today will almost certainly apply to a time after COVID-19 – that will have to hold their own in these changed conditions, it makes sense to be clear about his assumptions.

Making the future conceivable

The german Zukunftsinstitut has published some interesting articles about the suspected effects of COVID-19 on our behaviour. The Corona-Effect – 4 Future Scenarios for Economy and Society is only one of them that you should read. But I wanted to develop my own thoughts about it and looked for a suitable systematics.

So today I grabbed the good old Megatrend Map of the Zukunftsinstitut and went through all the trends. And compared them with my assumptions. A very interesting exercise.

Here are my findings – Click to enlarge.

Brainstorming: What do I think is likely?

When I imagine today (in march 2020) how the world looks like after the crisis, many small details come to my mind that will probably change after the COVID-19 experience. I simply wrote down my thoughts, 94 individual assumptions, very individual from my specific point of view as a designer living in Germany. No claim of general validity or completeness. I post this here also to look back at the time overcoming the crisis and to see how my view of the world has changed.

Do this exercise for yourself. Here is the original Megatrend Map by the Zukunftsinstitut. And here is my long list with my personal assumptions for the time after COVID-19 – as well as the trend phenomena from the megatrend map. (Addendum 07/21: in the meantime, Zukunfstinstitut has published several articles on the impact of COVID-19 and also created a post-Corona trend map).

	Assumption	Trend Phenomenon
1	Wearing masks will be part of daily lifestyle	Mindfulness, Do-it-yourself, Universal design
2	Highest hygienic standards are required	Preventive Health
3	Social/physical distancing will be maintained	Mindfulness, Supersafe society, Privacy, OMLine
4	Healthy lifestyle continues to gain ground	Mindfulness, Health Literacy, OMLine, Digital Health
5	Tele-Health, remote consultations are requested to avoid infection	Digital Health
6	Swarm intelligence through health data and AI	Preventive Health, Predictive analytics
7	The fear of the second wave is present	Digital Health, Open Knowledge, Resonance Society
8	Holistic concept of health is maturing, body, environment, city, politics, global	Holistic Health
9	Fitness Boom Individualizes More and More into Private	Movement Culture
10	Sportiness as a lifestyle is on the decline	Sportivity
11	Thinking sports and other long-distance duels via Internet	Mind-Sport
12	Nutritional awareness increases, towards vegan	Flexitarian
13	Lockdown lasts until summer Supersafe society	Supersafe society, Hygge, quality of life
14	Simple things are appreciated more	Simplexity
15	Skin in the game – Feeling for sincerity	Identity management
16	Responsibility is expected	Trust technology
17	Design becomes more honest – authentic	Simplexity
18	Club sport becomes less frequent	Preventive health
19	Private celebrations become smaller	Downsizing, we culture, neo-tribes
20	Major events increasingly viewed critically	Preventive Health, downsizing, supersafe society
21	Hygiene behaviour is growing, Germophobia, avoid foreign contact, invisible barriers	Hyperhygiene, supersafe society
22	Crowds are out, airy groups in	Downsizing, we culture, neo-tribes
23	China can become a role model	Multipolar world order
24	Borders are emphasized, border traffic decreases	Neo-nationalism
25	Local group formation supported by social media	Glocalisation, social networks, good citizens
26	Aid organisations trend	Social Business
27	Bringing production back into the country	Nearshoring, Simplexity
28	Individual emergency stockpiling and management	Resonance Society, mindfulness
29	Bullshit intolerance grows	Mindfulness
30	Friendships through practised selfless help	We-Culture, Sharing Economy
31	Pleasure is defined differently	Mindfulness, Quality of life
32	Redefinition of quality of life	Quality of life
33	Confidence in politics declines	We-Culture, Resonance society
34	Generation conflict intensifies (ok Boomer)	Economy of meaning, social business, quality of life, post-carbon society
35	Permanent uncertainty remains in some parts of the population	Resonance society, social media
36	Retreat into the private sphere, cocooning	Hygge
37	Cocooning is carried outside	Hygge, Privacy, Preventive Health
38	Shelter for family, friends is defined	Neo-Tribes
39	“The inner circle” is defined, everything else is outside	Neo-Tribes
40	Own bubble, bubbling together with others	We Culture
41	Distance rules lead to new forms of interpersonal communication. Real Emojis, Likes	We Culture
42	More certified delivery services	Everyday outsourcing, dash delivery
43	Necessary flexibility in the labour market	Multigraphy, lifelong learning, flexicurity
44	More telecommunications and Internet	Smart Devices
45	Medical device manufacturing is normalized, competitors are working together	3D-Printing, Coopetion
46	Trade fairs are out, presentation on the Internet will be more	Real Digital, Digital Creatives
47	Cashless payment becomes standard	Trust Technology
48	Contracts via Blockchain replace the contract signature	Blockchain
49	Increased cybercrime / Internet Achilles’ heel	Cybercrime, Trust-Technology
50	Privacy Paradox – We want privacy, but we need security from Big Data, Early Warning Systems vs. Privacy	Privacy, Big Data, Self-Tracking
51	Cheating and manipulation in advertising and design declines	Digital reputation, post-gender marketing
52	The hour of Digital Creatives, everything can be solved digitally	Digital Creatives
53	Bike, scooter boom	Micro-mobility, bike boom
54	Fewer trips, less distant, conscious	De-touristification
55	Private transport preferred, but eco	E-Mobility
56	Mail order business booming	Dash-Delivery
57	Avoidance of mass transport, new public transport concepts required
58	Fewer flights, protects health and the environment	Slow Culture, Super-safe society, De-Touristification
59	Environmental awareness on the rise, 100 km/h speed limit conceivable for the first time	Post-Carbon Society
60	Overheating in many areas is being reduced	Slow Culture
61	Turning “miserliness is cool!” into spending money sensibly	Sense Economy
62	Proof of origin is required	Direct trade, postal services Growth economy, transparency markets
63	Waste prevention – vs – disposable protective clothing	Zero-Waste
69	Locally organised Circular economy	Circular Economy
65	Barter trade booming	Sharing-Economy
66	COVID-19 is linked to climate protection	Greentec, quality of life, post growth economy
67	Many new single-use products for safety and hygiene reasons	Zero-Waste
68	Purchases with a focus on sustainability and security, consumerism declines	Minimalism, slow culture, post growth economy
69	Premium segment is changing towards sustainability	Quality of life, minimalism, slow culture, post-growth economy
70	Many people at the subsistence level	Sharing-Economy
71	High unemployment	Start-up Culture, Gig-Economy
72	Freelance working from home	Start-up Culture, Gig-Economy
73	Job security redefined	Co-Working, Gig-Economy
74	Home office becomes the norm	Work-Life-Blending, Cybercrime, open knowledge
75	Office is dissapearing step by step	Work-Life-Blending, Cybercrime, open knowledge
76	Platforms for life and work	Platform Economy
77	Better Online Tools	Platform Economy
78	Double earning is becoming less common, new parent roles	Progressive Parents
79	Systemically important jobs are upgraded	Corporate Health
80	Virtual collaboration becomes more	Collaboration, We culture
81	Fewer meetings	Collaboration, Smart City
82	New shop concepts, safer, more distance, sensible	Service economy, omni-channelling, dash delivery
83	International competition for the brightest minds	Talentismus
84	Highly qualified people are bored / unemployed / retired	Un-Ruhestand
85	Older generation must save the younger	Downaging, post-demography
86	It’s hard to be hilarious in a group, going-out miles on the retreat	Third Places
87	Expressing togetherness	Co-Living
88	The city is losing its appeal	De-Urbanisierung, Rural Citiys
89	Neighbourhood assistance expands	Urban Manufacturing
90	Tinyhouses – small but my	Micro Housing
91	Entertainment goes in the direction of knowledge transfer	Edutainment
92	School as a place of learning is questioned	Learning Analytics, educational business
93	Remote maintenance, remote instructions	Augmented Learning
94	Do more by yourself, acquire new skills	Open Innovation, Crowdsourcing, Co-Working, Do it yourself, Digital Literacy, 3D Printing

What can we do with it now?

I’m sure this is the more difficult part. To be honest, I don’t know yet. I suppose these 94 personal assumptions will influence my decisions. Decisions on design projects, decisions on investments or partnerships. In any case, I would be delighted if we could take this speculative approach together with our customers – for their microcosm. Our offer for a joint Innovation Managment workshop is hereby confirmed.

Addition 1:

In connection with the possible behavioral changes assumed above, I have gained the following insight from the book “Skin in the Game” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb An intolerant minority – no matter how small – will sooner or later dominate the tolerant majority. The book gives many vivid examples of this.