What will be after COVID-19?
You are currently stuck at home and have more than enough time to think. The daily flow of depressing, worrying news doesn’t let go of you, although the gain in knowledge remains extremely small. Thoughts about it run in circles. Time to bring some order into your own thinking.
> Go directly to the Corona-Trendlist
I wrote this post on 29.03.2020, 7 days after the first lock-down started in Germany.

As an industrial designer or developer in general, I design with certain assumptions in my head. Assumptions that have developed over decades of professional activity and that are reliably implemented in new products.
But now it is also clear that our world will not be the same after the COVID-19 crisis has been overcome. What will change, what will remain? The experts cannot give you any certainty. So we are forced to move into the field of speculation.
If I now plan products – and the products planned today will almost certainly apply to a time after COVID-19 – that will have to hold their own in these changed conditions, it makes sense to be clear about his assumptions.
Making the future conceivable
The german Zukunftsinstitut has published some interesting articles about the suspected effects of COVID-19 on our behaviour. The Corona-Effect – 4 Future Scenarios for Economy and Society is only one of them that you should read. But I wanted to develop my own thoughts about it and looked for a suitable systematics.
So today I grabbed the good old Megatrend Map of the Zukunftsinstitut and went through all the trends. And compared them with my assumptions. A very interesting exercise.
Brainstorming: What do I think is likely?
When I imagine today (in march 2020) how the world looks like after the crisis, many small details come to my mind that will probably change after the COVID-19 experience. I simply wrote down my thoughts, 94 individual assumptions, very individual from my specific point of view as a designer living in Germany. No claim of general validity or completeness. I post this here also to look back at the time overcoming the crisis and to see how my view of the world has changed.
Do this exercise for yourself. Here is the original Megatrend Map by the Zukunftsinstitut. And here is my long list with my personal assumptions for the time after COVID-19 – as well as the trend phenomena from the megatrend map. (Addendum 07/21: in the meantime, Zukunfstinstitut has published several articles on the impact of COVID-19 and also created a post-Corona trend map).
Assumption | Trend Phenomenon | |
1 | Wearing masks will be part of daily lifestyle | Mindfulness, Do-it-yourself, Universal design |
2 | Highest hygienic standards are required | Preventive Health |
3 | Social/physical distancing will be maintained | Mindfulness, Supersafe society, Privacy, OMLine |
4 | Healthy lifestyle continues to gain ground | Mindfulness, Health Literacy, OMLine, Digital Health |
5 | Tele-Health, remote consultations are requested to avoid infection | Digital Health |
6 | Swarm intelligence through health data and AI | Preventive Health, Predictive analytics |
7 | The fear of the second wave is present | Digital Health, Open Knowledge, Resonance Society |
8 | Holistic concept of health is maturing, body, environment, city, politics, global | Holistic Health |
9 | Fitness Boom Individualizes More and More into Private | Movement Culture |
10 | Sportiness as a lifestyle is on the decline | Sportivity |
11 | Thinking sports and other long-distance duels via Internet | Mind-Sport |
12 | Nutritional awareness increases, towards vegan | Flexitarian |
13 | Lockdown lasts until summer Supersafe society | Supersafe society, Hygge, quality of life |
14 | Simple things are appreciated more | Simplexity |
15 | Skin in the game – Feeling for sincerity | Identity management |
16 | Responsibility is expected | Trust technology |
17 | Design becomes more honest – authentic | Simplexity |
18 | Club sport becomes less frequent | Preventive health |
19 | Private celebrations become smaller | Downsizing, we culture, neo-tribes |
20 | Major events increasingly viewed critically | Preventive Health, downsizing, supersafe society |
21 | Hygiene behaviour is growing, Germophobia, avoid foreign contact, invisible barriers | Hyperhygiene, supersafe society |
22 | Crowds are out, airy groups in | Downsizing, we culture, neo-tribes |
23 | China can become a role model | Multipolar world order |
24 | Borders are emphasized, border traffic decreases | Neo-nationalism |
25 | Local group formation supported by social media | Glocalisation, social networks, good citizens |
26 | Aid organisations trend | Social Business |
27 | Bringing production back into the country | Nearshoring, Simplexity |
28 | Individual emergency stockpiling and management | Resonance Society, mindfulness |
29 | Bullshit intolerance grows | Mindfulness |
30 | Friendships through practised selfless help | We-Culture, Sharing Economy |
31 | Pleasure is defined differently | Mindfulness, Quality of life |
32 | Redefinition of quality of life | Quality of life |
33 | Confidence in politics declines | We-Culture, Resonance society |
34 | Generation conflict intensifies (ok Boomer) | Economy of meaning, social business, quality of life, post-carbon society |
35 | Permanent uncertainty remains in some parts of the population | Resonance society, social media |
36 | Retreat into the private sphere, cocooning | Hygge |
37 | Cocooning is carried outside | Hygge, Privacy, Preventive Health |
38 | Shelter for family, friends is defined | Neo-Tribes |
39 | “The inner circle” is defined, everything else is outside | Neo-Tribes |
40 | Own bubble, bubbling together with others | We Culture |
41 | Distance rules lead to new forms of interpersonal communication. Real Emojis, Likes | We Culture |
42 | More certified delivery services | Everyday outsourcing, dash delivery |
43 | Necessary flexibility in the labour market | Multigraphy, lifelong learning, flexicurity |
44 | More telecommunications and Internet | Smart Devices |
45 | Medical device manufacturing is normalized, competitors are working together | 3D-Printing, Coopetion |
46 | Trade fairs are out, presentation on the Internet will be more | Real Digital, Digital Creatives |
47 | Cashless payment becomes standard | Trust Technology |
48 | Contracts via Blockchain replace the contract signature | Blockchain |
49 | Increased cybercrime / Internet Achilles’ heel | Cybercrime, Trust-Technology |
50 | Privacy Paradox – We want privacy, but we need security from Big Data, Early Warning Systems vs. Privacy | Privacy, Big Data, Self-Tracking |
51 | Cheating and manipulation in advertising and design declines | Digital reputation, post-gender marketing |
52 | The hour of Digital Creatives, everything can be solved digitally | Digital Creatives |
53 | Bike, scooter boom | Micro-mobility, bike boom |
54 | Fewer trips, less distant, conscious | De-touristification |
55 | Private transport preferred, but eco | E-Mobility |
56 | Mail order business booming | Dash-Delivery |
57 | Avoidance of mass transport, new public transport concepts required | |
58 | Fewer flights, protects health and the environment | Slow Culture, Super-safe society, De-Touristification |
59 | Environmental awareness on the rise, 100 km/h speed limit conceivable for the first time | Post-Carbon Society |
60 | Overheating in many areas is being reduced | Slow Culture |
61 | Turning “miserliness is cool!” into spending money sensibly | Sense Economy |
62 | Proof of origin is required | Direct trade, postal services Growth economy, transparency markets |
63 | Waste prevention – vs – disposable protective clothing | Zero-Waste |
69 | Locally organised Circular economy | Circular Economy |
65 | Barter trade booming | Sharing-Economy |
66 | COVID-19 is linked to climate protection | Greentec, quality of life, post growth economy |
67 | Many new single-use products for safety and hygiene reasons | Zero-Waste |
68 | Purchases with a focus on sustainability and security, consumerism declines | Minimalism, slow culture, post growth economy |
69 | Premium segment is changing towards sustainability | Quality of life, minimalism, slow culture, post-growth economy |
70 | Many people at the subsistence level | Sharing-Economy |
71 | High unemployment | Start-up Culture, Gig-Economy |
72 | Freelance working from home | Start-up Culture, Gig-Economy |
73 | Job security redefined | Co-Working, Gig-Economy |
74 | Home office becomes the norm | Work-Life-Blending, Cybercrime, open knowledge |
75 | Office is dissapearing step by step | Work-Life-Blending, Cybercrime, open knowledge |
76 | Platforms for life and work | Platform Economy |
77 | Better Online Tools | Platform Economy |
78 | Double earning is becoming less common, new parent roles | Progressive Parents |
79 | Systemically important jobs are upgraded | Corporate Health |
80 | Virtual collaboration becomes more | Collaboration, We culture |
81 | Fewer meetings | Collaboration, Smart City |
82 | New shop concepts, safer, more distance, sensible | Service economy, omni-channelling, dash delivery |
83 | International competition for the brightest minds | Talentismus |
84 | Highly qualified people are bored / unemployed / retired | Un-Ruhestand |
85 | Older generation must save the younger | Downaging, post-demography |
86 | It’s hard to be hilarious in a group, going-out miles on the retreat | Third Places |
87 | Expressing togetherness | Co-Living |
88 | The city is losing its appeal | De-Urbanisierung, Rural Citiys |
89 | Neighbourhood assistance expands | Urban Manufacturing |
90 | Tinyhouses – small but my | Micro Housing |
91 | Entertainment goes in the direction of knowledge transfer | Edutainment |
92 | School as a place of learning is questioned | Learning Analytics, educational business |
93 | Remote maintenance, remote instructions | Augmented Learning |
94 | Do more by yourself, acquire new skills | Open Innovation, Crowdsourcing, Co-Working, Do it yourself, Digital Literacy, 3D Printing |
What can we do with it now?
I’m sure this is the more difficult part. To be honest, I don’t know yet. I suppose these 94 personal assumptions will influence my decisions. Decisions on design projects, decisions on investments or partnerships. In any case, I would be delighted if we could take this speculative approach together with our customers – for their microcosm. Our offer for a joint Innovation Managment workshop is hereby confirmed.

Addition 1:
In connection with the possible behavioral changes assumed above, I have gained the following insight from the book “Skin in the Game” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb An intolerant minority – no matter how small – will sooner or later dominate the tolerant majority. The book gives many vivid examples of this.

Markus
Markus writes about design- and innovation management, creativity methods, medical design and intercultural branding. More about...